Will’s Word: Weekend politics signals New Zealand’s mood

This weekend that just went by belonged to Oriini Kaipara. 3000 votes clear in the Tāmaki Makaurau by-election. Te Pāti Māori holding their ground in Tāmaki, while Labour? Nowhere.

Make no mistake, Labour needed this win badly. A Peeni Henare win would have fed the story Labour's been dying to tell: we're on the comeback.

Instead, we've been handed the opposite. Another headline suggests Māori voters may be walking away. Willie Jackson, though, argues it wasn't personal, just hard to sell Peeni.

But you don't lose by 3,000 votes because it's hard to sell. You arguably lose by that margin because people either don't believe in what you're selling at all, or they like the vision from the other party.

And for Labour, that's a nightmare. Tāmaki Makaurau is huge. In some ways, it's a barometer. It says Māori voters are willing to ditch the big parties if they feel ignored. It says perhaps the Labour brand, which once dominated the Māori seats, is up for grabs.

Meanwhile, Te Pāti Māori is growing into this unapologetic brand that actually connects. Fascinating result, and it'll be interesting to see what Labour does from here.

Listen to Will’s Word below.

If you zoom out, this same weekend, you've got old mate Winston Peters firing up his base down in Palmerston North - a massive crowd. He spoke about compulsory KiwiSaver, promising tax cuts, making English official and bashing the woke left.

Say what you want about old mate Winnie, but he's owning his lane, loud and clear. So Labour is stuck in the worst spot. They've lost Māori voters to Te Pati Māori, they're losing older voters to Winston, and the middle? Well, slipping away too, who knows?

This by-election should have been a turning point for Labour. A Henare win would have been spun as Labour clawing back trust. Instead, it's another dent. Another reason for nervous faces.

Oh, how I'd love to be in the Labour caucus room for the discussions that will inevitably take place. With an election cycle ticking down fast, explanations are needed now more than ever for the Labour Party.

That's Will's Word.