
It doesn't feel like an economy on the mend, it feels like an economy stuck in limbo.
Photo/File
Inflation has crept back up, unemployment is rising, and yet economists predict the Reserve Bank is about to cut the Official Cash Rate again?
It is a rough time to be a Kiwi right now. Inflation is creeping back up when most of us feel like we've already cut our spending to the bone. Unemployment's rising, businesses are nervous, and every trip to the supermarket feels like a tax on existing.
It doesn't feel like an economy on the mend, it feels like an economy stuck in limbo. Yet, here we are with the Reserve Bank poised to cut the official cash rate today.
To be clear, that's not a dig at the bank, they're doing what central banks are supposed to do: Read the tea leaves, weigh the risks, and try to keep the ship steady.
But you have to wonder, is this really the moment to loosen the screws? Because here's the ironic contradiction: We're told households are under the pump, cutting back on spending and yet inflation, supposedly demand driven, is on the move again.
Something doesn't add up. If people are broke, if demand is collapsing, why the hell are prices still rising? That's the riddle we're living through. Cheaper borrowing might give the economy a bit of a nudge, but will it solve the deeper issues? Will it fix low productivity?
As was highlighted by our Deputy Prime Minister on the show yesterday: David Seymour, productivity is a problem in this country. Will it rebuild confidence for households staring down higher bills and fewer job prospects?
Listen to Will’s Word on Facebook below.
Of course not. This OCR cut, at best, buys time. Here's the uncomfortable truth. Tinkering with interest rates up or down doesn't deal with the structural rot that is going on in this country at the moment.
We're running low on growth, high costs, and little sign of the investment and innovation needed to actually turn things around. This government is not moving fast enough. It's moving at a glacial pace.
Hard to see how this government will be re-elected in the next election if this continues. They've talked a lot about economic growth, but where the hell is it? The Reserve Bank can only do so much. The rest is on government, business, and frankly, all of us as well.
So yes, the OCR cut might provide a short-term breather, but let's not kid ourselves here. It won't fix the fact that life in New Zealand is pretty hard. More expensive and less certain than it has in years.
Until someone fronts up to that reality with a long-term plan, we'll keep spinning in circles, no matter who's in government.
That's Will's word.