‘It’s not our money’: Parties split over what latest economic outlook means for NZ's voters

National is warning there is no spare cash to spend despite a much-improved fiscal outlook, while opposition parties say families struggling with the cost of living need more help.

The PMN-Horizon Research Pacific Issues Election Survey found cost of living was the biggest issue for Pacific voters, with nine in 10 saying it would influence how they vote.

Jobs and wages followed at 75 per cent while health and housing were also major concerns at 66 per cent and 65 per cent respectively.

National’s Māngere candidate Rosemary Bourke says the Government should stay disciplined after Treasury’s latest forecasts showed the books are expected to return to surplus.

The Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU), released on Tuesday, forecasts a $4 billion surplus in 2028/29 with the improved outlook largely driven by higher tax revenue and lower expected borrowing.

“It was great news, but it doesn’t mean we go and spend what was forecasted, because we haven’t got that banked,” Bourke told William Terite on Pacific Mornings. “They’re not just gone on a spending spree, because it’s not our money.”

Watch Rosemary Bourke's full interview below.

But Bourke acknowledges Pacific families are feeling the pressure. “I agree that people feel it hard. We can’t deny that and be dismissive.”

She says National’s answer is economic growth, higher wages and no new taxes. “We’re not about taxing our people. We want them to keep the money now.”

Labour deputy leader Carmel Sepuloni says the improved forecasts do not change what families are experiencing at the supermarket, petrol station or around the dinner table.

Watch Carmel Sepuloni's full interview below.

“Forecasts are forecasts, but they certainly don’t help people with the pressures that they’re facing right now,” she tells Terite.

Sepuloni was pressed on how Labour would pay for its promises including a 10 per cent student loan write-off and restoring pay equity legislation.

She says Labour will release its fiscal plan through finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds in the coming days.

“I can assure you that her plan will be solid and we won’t be reneging from the promises that we made.”

The Greens say their answer is to strengthen the tax base including through a wealth tax.

Green MP Teanau Tuiono says the PREFU does not change the party’s approach.

Listen to Teanau Tuiono's full interview below.

“We need to make sure that it’s locked in for not just this election, but the next election and the election after that,” he told Terite.

He also took a swipe at Labour over its yet-to-be-released costings. “If they’re still going through the details, then maybe they could just not worry about it and just use our details.”

The latest 1News-Verian poll has the Greens on 16 per cent, their highest result in that poll, while National and Labour are both on 28 per cent. Opportunity is at six per cent.

That has put added attention on the smaller party’s role after the election.

Opportunity has released five bottom lines it says any government seeking its support would need to agree to: stronger Commerce Commission powers to tackle supermarket competition, tighter rules around lobbying and political donations, a 10-year health plan, phasing out bottom trawling, and recommitting to climate targets.

The Opportunity’s Upper Harbour candidate Romeo Tevaga says the priorities are achievable within one term with the party’s land value tax and citizens’ income remaining longer-term goals.

Watch Romeo Tevaga's full interview below.

For Pacific families, Tevaga says health is the immediate concern.

“At the moment it’s a struggle to actually go and see the doctors, it’s taking a long time to go see them, it’s expensive, that’s a barrier for our community” he told Terite.

Sepuloni says working with Opportunity is possible but those discussions would ome after the election. National leader Christopher Luxon has ruled out working with Opportunity.

Tuiono says any future agreement also needs to be about changing the government.

“Our main goal here is to change the government and it would be good to work with those that would be able to do that.”

Sepuloni and Tuiono also paid tribute to former Speaker and Te Tai Hauauru MP, Adrian Rurawhe, who died on Tuesday.

Former MP and Speaker Adrian Rurawhe pictured in Parliament in 2022. Photo/RNZ/Angus Dreaver

Tuiono said Rurawhe’s fairness and guidance had stayed with him.

"I remember he was a very fair, very dignified kind of Speaker when he occupied the role, so to be an even hand, I think, is what I learned from him, and to be as fair as possible.”

Sepuloni said Rurawhe would be remembered across Parliament.

"He will be mourned not just by his own Labour colleagues and of course his family, but he'll be mourned from across the house, a speaker who was respected across the house for his fairness, for his kindness, for his calmness, for his discernment in his decision making.”

Rurawhe served as Speaker from 2022 to 2023 and remained the Labour MP for Te Tai Hauauru until his death.

The general election is on 7 November with advance voting starting on 26 October. Voters must be enrolled by 25 October.