Finals frenzy: Super Rugby Pacific's tight race intensifies with two rounds to go

With only two rounds left in the Super Rugby Pacific regular season, fans are buzzing about which teams will make it to the playoffs.

This year has been a close competition, with only six spots in the finals and a tight race for the top positions.

The Brumbies, Chiefs, and Crusaders have pulled ahead and are currently leading the pack.

Let's break down the potential scenarios for the finals, looking at which teams are safe, which are in danger of missing out, and who still has a chance:

Out of the running: Fijian Drua and Western Force

The Fijian Drua and Western Force are officially out of the finals race, as they are too far behind sixth-placed Moana Pasifika. They have byes this weekend and next.

In the hunt

Highlanders (19 points)

Next matches: Crusaders (away), Chiefs (home)

Best possible finish: Sixth place

Even though they sit at the bottom of the standings, the Highlanders still have a mathematical shot at the playoffs, but it won't be easy.

Timoci Tavatavanawai charges ahead for the Highlanders against the Hurricanes in Wellington on 16 May 2025. The Hurricanes won 24-20. Photo/Photosport

They need to win their next two matches with bonus points and hope that Moana Pasifika lose their upcoming games against the Chiefs and the Hurricanes.

They will also need the Force to beat the Waratahs, and then the Waratahs to defeat the Blues in the final round and hope that the defending champions from Auckland will not pick up a losing bonus point.

Waratahs (22 points)

Next matches: Force (away), Blues (away)

Best possible finish: Sixth place

Despite their current struggles, the Waratahs can still qualify for the finals. They must win both remaining matches against the Force and the Blues while getting help from other teams.

If they win, they hope for favourable outcomes in matches involving the Reds, Hurricanes, and Moana Pasifika.

The Blues, led by captain Patrick Tuipulotu, will be hoping for a better outing in their next game after their shock 27-21 defeat to Moana Pasifika last weekend. Photo/Photosport

Blues (28 points)

Next matches: Bye, Waratahs (home)

Best possible finish: Fifth place

The Blues have a clearer path to the finals. They hope for a bye this weekend, followed by a victory over the Waratahs in their last game. If things go their way in other matches, they could end up in fifth or possibly higher.

Moana Pasifika (28 points)

Next matches: Chiefs (away), Hurricanes (away)

Best possible finish: Fourth place

Moana Pasifika have done well to reach sixth place, but face tough matches ahead. They must win both upcoming games against the Chiefs and Hurricanes and hope for favourable results in other matches to earn their first playoff spot. They will be keeping an eye on the Reds-Hurricanes clash this weekend. A draw or Reds' win would be ideal for Tana Umaga's men; they would climb to fifth combined with a Moana win over the Chiefs. Moana will make their maiden finals appearance if they defeat the Hurricanes in Wellington and the Blues lose to the Waratahs. With two Moana wins, if the Reds lose to the Drua in Brisbane, Moana Pasifika could climb as high as fourth on points differential.

Super Rugby Player of the Year 2025: Moana Pasifika captain Ardie Savea against the Fijian Drua, will lead his side against the Chiefs in Hamilton on Saturday. Photo/Photosport

Hurricanes (30 points)

Next matches: Reds (away), Moana Pasifika (home)

Best possible finish: 4th

For the Hurricanes, things are looking more straightforward. Winning both their last matches will secure them fourth place. If they lose one but win the other, they still have a strong chance of making the finals, depending on the outcomes of several other matches.

Reds (32 points)

Next matches: Hurricanes (home, Drua (home)

Best possible finish: Second place

The Reds are in a strong position, aiming for the second final spot. They are looking to win their remaining matches to secure their place in the playoffs and potentially improve their position.

Crusaders winger Sevu Reece and his team-mates celebrate their win over the defending champions Blues in Christchurch on 18 April 2025. Photo/Photosport

Finals confirmed

Crusaders (41 points)

Next matches: Highlanders (h), Brumbies (away)

Best possible finish: First place

The race for the top three spots is close, with the Crusaders and Chiefs likely to move up past the Brumbies, who will have a break this weekend.

To secure first place, the Crusaders must win all their remaining games. They also hope the Chiefs will stumble against Moana Pasifika or the Highlanders. If the Crusaders lose to the Brumbies but beat the Highlanders, their final position will depend on how the Chiefs perform in their matches. Even in the worst-case scenario, the Crusaders should still finish in the top four, ensuring a spot in the finals.

Chiefs' forward Wallace Sititi against the Force in Mount Maunganui on 25 April 2025. Chiefs won 56-22. Photo/Photosport

Chiefs (41 points)

Next matches: Moana Pasifika (h), Highlanders (a)

Best possible finish: First

The Chiefs have a points advantage that could help them finish first. If they manage to win both of their next games, especially with bonus points, they could reach 53 points. However, if the Chiefs lose their two matches while the Crusaders also lose and the Reds win both their games with bonus points, the Chiefs could drop to third place. In any case, the Chiefs are assured of a spot in the finals.

Brumbies (43 points)

Next matches: Bye, Crusaders (away)

Best possible finish: First

The Brumbies have a bye week to rest their players, but this also gives the Crusaders and Chiefs a chance to catch up. They are safe for the finals since the Reds can't get enough points to surpass them. To solidify their position, the Brumbies must beat the Crusaders in their next match to guarantee they finish in at least second place. They will be watching the Chiefs closely, and if the Chiefs lose their upcoming games and the Brumbies win, it could help them take the top spot. But if the Chiefs win and the Crusaders lose, the Brumbies and Crusaders could be in a crucial match for the top position.

As the final rounds approach, every match counts, and fans are eagerly watching to see how everything plays out - World Rugby

Moana fans will be heading to Hamilton this Saturday to cheer on their side against the Chiefs. Photo/Photosport