New Zealand navigates diplomatic challenges as Trump transforms US foreign policy

As Foreign Minister Vaovasamanaia Winston Peters concludes high-level meetings in Washington, New Zealand finds itself at a diplomatic crossroads.

Speaking on Pacific Mornings, Professor Robert Patman, an international relations expert at Otago University, notes that while Peters remains pragmatic in his engagements, there is growing concern back home over the direction of US President Donald Trump’s foreign policy.

“The New Zealand Government is very concerned about the direction of the new Trump administration,” Patman says.

“As a country, we depend on the international rules-based order, but Trump appears to favour the projection of power over principles and due process.”

The uncertainty surrounding Trump’s international agenda has been aggravated by his administration’s strained relations with allies like Canada and Denmark and its stance on Ukraine.

Pacific aid and China’s expanding influence

The future of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) in the Pacific is a key issue in US-NZ relations.

The Biden administration had pledged over US$1 billion in assistance to Pacific nations, but under Trump, USAID is undergoing a major overhaul, with 83 per cent of its programmes being discontinued.

“If anything, the Trump administration seems semi-detached from the Pacific,” Patman says.

“This is a major concern, as it leaves room for China to increase its influence in the region.”

Watch Robert Patman's full interview below.

Patman says that recent agreements between Pacific nations and Beijing, such as the Cook Islands deal, suggest that the vacuum left by diminishing US support is already being filled.

Matt Terrill, former Chief of Staff to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, defended the administration’s approach, arguing that Trump’s foreign policy is more strategic than transactional.

“They’re not going to negotiate or do things in the foreign policy stage always in public,” Terrill says.

“I absolutely think they [the U.S] care [about the Pacific]. No question about that.

“China policy is front and centre for this administration. No question about that either.”

Watch Matt Terrill's full interview below.

However, Patman says Trump’s management of global conflicts, particularly in the Ukraine-Russia war, sends a troubling message to China.

“By pressuring Ukraine to accept concessions while rewarding Russian aggression, Trump is emboldening China.

“This could make China more assertive in the Pacific, particularly in Taiwan and among smaller island nations.”

Marco Antonio Rubio is the US Secretary of State. Photo/USAID

Winston Peters’ takeaway from Washington

Following his meetings with US officials, including the acting head of USAID, Peter Marocco, and National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, Peters conveyed a cautiously optimistic outlook to the media.

Peters is also scheduled to meet with Rubio later on Tuesday.

While Peters acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding USAID’s role in the Pacific, he expressed confidence in the ongoing discussions.

Winston Peters leaves the US State Department following his meeting with USAID chief Peter Marocco. Photo/Supplied

“We had a very frank and open discussion,” Peters says. “We now have a better sense of where things stand, though we’ll have to wait until April for final decisions on aid.”

Peters emphasised that New Zealand remains committed to the Pacific despite the uncertainty.

“The US role is the most critical role of all,” Peters says. “Since 2017, Trump’s administration has shown an increased focus on the Pacific, and we hope that will continue with his return.”