First Tonga pre-election poll shows clear favourites, but many voters still undecided

Tonga’s first pre-election poll is offering the clearest picture yet of how voters on Tongatapu may lean ahead of Thursday’s general election.

The poll, conducted by the Tonga National University, shows that the final days of campaigning could be decisive.

The poll reveals a mix of dominant frontrunners, razor-thin races, and electorates split across several candidates.

In an interview with PMN News, Dr Malakai Koloamatangi, who oversees the university’s election observation programme, says the poll was also intended to encourage people to vote.

“We asked participants whether they’re voting and many said they weren’t until we raised it with them,” Koloamatangi says.

The survey, carried out on 15 November, interviewed 445 voters anonymously across Tongatapu’s 10 constituencies. Researchers visited three towns in each electorate.

Three constituencies - Tongatapu 1, 4 and 5 - each show a clear preferred candidate, with more than half of respondents backing the frontrunner.

Dr Malakai Koloamatangi. Photo/PMN News/Ala Vailala

The leading candidates in these electorates are followed by runners-up at roughly one-third.

Tongatapu 2, which covers some of Nuku’alofa’s biggest residential areas, including Fanga-’o-Pilolevu, Haveluloto, northern Tofoa and Mailetaha, is shaping up to be the closest contest in the Kingdom, with two candidates almost tied at 50 per cent each.

Tongatapu 3, 7, and 10 also show dominant favourites, each well ahead of the rest of the field.

Prime Minister Dr 'Aisake Eke is running for the Tongatapu 5 seat. Photo/PMN News/Ala Vailala

Tongatapu 6 is a three-way contest: two candidates are sitting at around one-third of the vote each, while a third candidate is on about 20 per cent.

Tongatapu 8 is the most fragmented electorate, with five candidates clustered between 10-20 per cent. In Tongatapu 9, one candidate leads on 40 per cent, with two others polling between 20-30 per cent.

Of the 445 respondents, over 300 stated that they voted in the 2021 election, while 90 revealed they did not. Almost all surveyed, except five, stated that they intend to vote this year.

Koloamatangi says the team met two distinct groups of voters: those firmly committed to a candidate, and a surprisingly large number still undecided.

“That means for the candidates, there’s still time,” he says. “The last few days of campaigning will be the difference in whether you get voted in or not. So there’s still time.

“But the reason why we’re doing the polling is that in a lot of countries, pre-election polls offer a sense of not exactly a prediction, but to indicate what the results might be.”

Listen to Dr Malakai Koloamatangi's full interview below.

MN News Political Reporter 'Alakihihifo Vailala is in Nuku'alofa. PMN Coverage of Tonga Election 2025 is brought to you by the Pacific Business Trust - building strong futures, together.