Will’s Word: Signs of voter fatigue as both Labour and National parties slide in support

I would be shaking in my boots if I was the National Party after the latest Taxpayers Curia poll. The poll result is pretty significant.

National has dipped under 30 per cent to 29.6 per cent in the Curia survey, suggesting perhaps erosion in their support base. Meanwhile, Labour remains ahead on 31.2 per cent.

That's despite its own drop, and the left bloc potentially in striking distance of forming a government. What jumps out to me, looking at these figures, is how tight things are.

This isn't a wholesale shift in the political landscape but it does signal vulnerability for the governing side. The margins are narrow and the small swings or coalition dynamics could be decisive.

But the fact that both major parties are losing ground, National down 3.5 points to Labour down 2.6 points in this poll, hints that voters are probably unsettled, myself included. Yes, I'm kind of dissatisfied with the status quo more broadly, rather than just one party's performance.

The cost of living, the state of the economy, health, and housing remain dominant in voters' minds, including mine. And I feel like we've had no tangible change or shift in any of those key issues.

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The cost of living, we're still harping on about and the state of the economy is still in flux. Health outcomes are still poor and housing is still unaffordable.

The math based on these figures is clear: Coalition partners and minor parties are going to be pivotal. Look at New Zealand's first rise in this poll: 10.6 per cent, and the Greens bumped to 12 per cent.

Huge. Feels like ever so increasingly, our major parties like Labour and National are losing popularity, and the minor parties are on the come up. That's why I'm grateful we do live in a Mixed Member Proportional system.

That’s Will’s Word.