Will’s Word: A Pacific family heading towards a breaking point

At a time when the Pacific ought to be coming together, the region feels more fractured than ever. Just look at the headlines.

The Cook Islands and New Zealand trading diplomatic jabs over self-determination and influence. Christopher Luxon called it a “dispute”, that's strong language. Sāmoa is on the cusp of a critical election.

Next month's Pacific Islands Forum in Honiara is already causing unease well before it's even begun. The Solomon Islands, some experts argue, is now firmly aligned with China. They announced it may shut the door to about two dozen traditional partners during the forum leaders meeting.

Countries like the United States, Australia, even Taiwan, which is technically a development partner, not a dialogue one, could be sidelined. That's all a mess. A cacophony of noise.

While Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele frames this as an internal leader's only affair, few believe that's the full story, myself included. I'm always cynical though. It is hard to ignore the shadow Beijing casts over these decisions.

I think Taiwan's potential exclusion from Solomon Islands soil is a political choice. One that highlights perhaps the shifting allegiances within the region and raises a deeper question of who is shaping the future of the Pacific?

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This is where the fragility lies. The idea of the Pacific family has long been the language of forum leaders, but lately, in the past few years, that family feels more like a dysfunctional whānau. Emphasis on dysfunctional.

What makes all this more concerning is the global attention the Pacific now commands. Put simply, it's as if everyone wants a slice of the Pacific Blue Continent. Instead of speaking with one voice, which arguably is what you want from a body such as PIF,, we're becoming more divided.

The region risks descending into dysfunctional chaos where local politics and global power plays combine to weaken so-called unity. You're probably reading this like, “why should I even care”?

Put simply, a divided Pacific is a weaker Pacific. Less able to advocate for things that matter, like climate action, less able to negotiate fair deals, less able to protect people from exploitation and manipulation.

The crux of the issue for me is when unity falters or falls apart, so does sovereignty. At the end of the day, the question is, can the Pacific hold together at a time it's been pulled in so many different directions?

That remains to be seen.

That's Will's Word.