Election 2023 - On The Beat: Hipkins edges Luxon, but misses chance to 'capture this moment'

Lose yourself is the feature track in Eminem’s semi-autobiographical movie 8 Mile, which chronicles the rise of his character B-Rabbit from trailer park deadbeat to successful hip hop artist, due to his ability to battle others in live freestyle rapping events.

And in some ways, the one-on-one verbal bouts Eminem faced, are not too dissimilar to last night's face-off between Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon in the first of the televised leaders’ debates on TVNZ 1.

Just like Eminem, I’m sure both Chris’ palms “were sweaty, knees weak and arms heavy”​​​, but hopefully, unlike the song, there was no vomit on their nicely tailored suits.

And to win, both party leaders needed to “lose themselves in the moment” but particularly for Hipkins, as this was his chance “to seize everything you ever wanted in one moment”​, with the overarching question being would he “capture it or just let it slip?”​​

But if the TVNZ pundits are to be believed, Hipkins didn’t take his chances, as Maiki Sherman, Tau Henare and David Cunliffe all declared that while Labour’s leader showed some deft touches, he failed to the land the knockout blow to close the ever-widening polling gap between himself and Luxon’s National Party.

​Debates are very much about one-liners and shutting down attacks quickly without looking flustered or defensive.

And it did seem Luxon came well-prepared with a series of catchy quips and memorable phrases - even if some were widely inaccurate - like claiming there's two ram raids every day and saying that the National Party invented “for Māori, by Māori” approaches, when such things were happening well before the National Party was even formed.

On the other hand, Hipkins looked weakest when he tried to explain his way through his GST policy or his Government’s approach on curbing crime - but was strongest when he had short decisive statements on health, education and international relations.

But unlike TVNZ’s panelists, I would give Hipkins a slight points win, as Luxon seemed to tire as the 90-minute debate dragged into its final quarter, while Hipkins seemed to be warming into his work the longer it went on.

What was also striking is how many things Hipkins and Luxon agreed on, including free school lunches, diplomatic relations with China, ruling out a wealth tax and meeting New Zealand’s climate change goals - even if the way they would do it was different. And this is probably the area that hurt Hipkins the most.

If he is unable to create a clear distinction in voters’ minds between himself and a potential National/ACT coalition then he will likely lose the election.

Hipkins could have used the debate to highlight some of the more radical and also unpopular positions held by Luxon’s likely coalition partner David Seymour, ramming home that ACT will create a rather unruly government, compared to the rather benign Green Party.

But like Eminem's B-Rabbit character, Hipkins will just have to go “back to the lab again”​ and hope next time he's able to “capture this moment and hope it don't pass him”, as it possibly did on this occasion.