Election 2023 - On The Beat: Who are the Pacific politicians most likely to get elected

Advance voting begins today which means we’re only two weeks away from polling booths closing on 14 October.

It also means the lives of many political candidates are about to change dramatically.

For current MPs who lose, it will mean returning to relative obscurity and getting out of the relentless scrutiny of the Beehive bubble.

For first-timers, they will not only need to grapple with all the intricacies and oddities that make up the life of an MP. There's also a decision about whether they uproot their families and move to Wellington or will they make the arduous commute into New Zealand’s windiest airport each week.

Twenty-twenty saw the largest ever contingent of Pacific politicians in Parliament, with Labour contributing 11 and the Greens’ Teanau Tuiono rounding out the dozen. But if you take the current polls seriously, it would be safe to assume that number will be somewhat reduced.

Labour's Carmel Sepuloni, Barbara Edmonds, Jenny Salesa, Tangi Utikere and Lemauga Lydia Sosene are all assured of getting in given the traditionally safe seats they are running in.

Dr Anae Neru Leavasa should also return, having won his Takanini seat by over 7000 votes in 2020 but his opponent Rima Nakhle will likely finish much closer this time.

With Labour consistently polling between 26 to 30 per cent, they can expect to bring in between 7 and 11 list MPs. This means Samoan Dan Rosewarne from the South Island electorate of Waimakariri and popular Tongan list MP Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki are both likely to miss out given their list placings of 32 and 34 respectively.

For National, Fonoti Agnes Loheni is virtually assured of a return to Parliament with her high list placing at 25. And Tongan, Irish and Samoan Māngere-based candidate Rosemary Bourke is also an outside chance with her list placing of 32.

Given the Greens’ polling of around 12 per cent, Cook Islander Tuiono, who’s ranked fifth, will be joined by former Auckland councillor Fa’anana Efeso Collins on the party’s benches given his list placing of 11.

Fijian-Indian Anne Degia-Pala is NZ First’s highest ranked Pacific candidate at 12, which means the Queen’s Service Medal recipient won’t be joining Winston Peters in his likely return to Parliament.

Given minor parties ACT and TOP have no candidates from the Pacific, Samoan Heker Robertson is the only other outside chance for making it to the Beehive. He is currently ranked fifth on Freedoms New Zealand’s list and if the party reaches the crucial five per cent party vote threshold, the Remutaka electorate candidate will find himself in Parliament alongside Brian and Hannah Tamaki and three other Freedoms NZ list MPs.

My way-to-early prediction

Based on current polling and who’s likely to win their electorate seats, I’m going to make a way-to-early election prediction, which is just as likely to not happen given the most intense period of the campaign is about to start.

National wins 45 seats and ACT wins 14 - getting their centre-right block to 59.

While Labour (37), the Greens (15) and Te Pāti Māori (3) should reach a combined block of 55 seats.

And once again, NZ First will play kingmaker with their 6 seats.

But if this does transpire, I don’t expect we will know the make-up of our next government for at least a few days and possibly a week given the careful way Peters likes to conduct his negotiations.

If you’re interested in making your own predictions, I highly recommend using the Electoral Commission seat allocation calculator and trawling through Labour and National’s respective lists to work out who's in and out.

E Tū by Upper Hutt Posse

With this political column series likely to end soon, I thought it would be appropriate to highlight one of the pioneers of NZ hip hop, the Upper Hutt Posse and their track E Tū, which was Aotearoa’s first ever rap record.

This particular song is an incredible politically-charged track that pays homage to Māori leaders like Te Rauparaha and Te Kooti, as well as highlighting issues such a rising inflation and the need for people to learn their history.

And so in the lead up to this election, I’d suggest not just getting informed about who to vote for, but also listening to politically enlightening music like this ( which is included on my On The Beat Spotify playlist of all the songs mentioned in these columns), to help you with your voting decisions.

*Disclaimer: When not working as a journalist, Justin Latif has previously volunteered for a range of political parties as well as supporting Fa'anana Efeso Collins during his run for mayor.