‘Our scientists are going to Australia’: Expert warns NZ is losing pandemic expertise

As New Zealand marks five years since its first confirmed case of Covid-19, a key figure in Aotearoa’s pandemic response reflects on the lessons learned and the work that remains.

Speaking on Pacific Mornings, epidemiologist Professor Michael Baker describes New Zealand’s response to Covid-19 as among the best globally, based on key health metrics.

“New Zealand's response was amongst the best in the world,” he tells William Terite.

“And one of the things, being an epidemiologist, we look at things like how many people died compared with similar countries and what were hospitalisations like, what are things like long-term disability from long Covid. We can't measure all of those things.

“Just on the one metric of, say, excess mortality, New Zealand had very low excess mortality over the whole pandemic.

“Compared with other countries that manage the pandemic poorly, like the US and the UK, we have saved probably 20,000 lives during that period.

“The big thing that New Zealand did, and we all know this, everyone in New Zealand was part of this, was basically keeping the virus out for two years.

“That gave us time to vaccinate the public, get high coverage levels, and also for doctors to get a better understanding of how to manage people when they're very sick with Covid.”

Baker says the early suppression strategy and rigorous public health measures helped New Zealand delay widespread transmission until the Omicron variant emerged. By this time, medical professionals have better understood how to manage severe Covid cases.

Professor Michael Baker. Photo/RNZ/Samuel Rillstone

Unprecedented measures and their impact

Baker acknowledges how remarkable the period has been, reflecting on interventions such as lockdowns, closed borders, managed isolations and quarantine (MIQ) facilities, mass testing, the Covid Tracer app, and vaccination passports.

He recalls how surreal the early lockdowns felt, with deserted streets and a complete upheaval of daily life.

“At the time, some of my colleagues were surveying the public very extensively and interestingly it was very tough for some people but also the majority of New Zealanders actually found some positives from that experience.

“One of the big things they described was actually just walking on the streets with no cars and getting to know their neighbors better.

“But it was a remarkable time, and some people recall actually spending a lot more time with their families and actually getting some real positives from the whole experience.”

But the pandemic also exposed deep inequities, particularly for Māori and Pacific communities, which faced challenges such as overcrowded housing and economic hardship.

Currently, over 84 per cent of people aged 12 and over have received the primary course dose. Photo/RNZ/Louise Ternouth

Baker highlighted the leadership shown by these communities in delivering strong, community-driven responses.

“One thing that was really impressive was how the Māori communities across the country and at Marae and so on delivered a remarkable response.

“I think that's a real lesson for all of us, and we talk about the idea of civil defence. Actually, communities are set up to provide the needs for their local area.

“I think Māori really lead the way with that in New Zealand and Pacific communities as well. I mean, the other thing is looking widely at Pacific islands.

“Many of them did even better than New Zealand at basically closing their borders and keeping the virus out for a very long period and actually had really great outcomes. And I think that's another success story for this part of the world.”

Covid-19 is the disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. It usually spreads between people in close contact. Photo/UN

The toll on experts and public health officials

As one of New Zealand’s most prominent experts during the pandemic, Baker regularly appeared in the media and provided crucial public health advice.

While his expertise was in high demand, he also faced criticism and scrutiny, which he admits was challenging.

“The thing that really took time was keeping up to date with the issue and the science.

“I think the privilege of talking to people via the media, and you wanna make sure your messages are actually going to advance our safety and look at the best possible evidence that we have.

“But during that time, I wrote hundreds of science reports and more than 50 peer-reviewed papers. I've done a couple of hundred talks, and a lot of them have been international.

“Something like 7000 interviews, according to the university. And so that was actually like nothing I've ever experienced before.

Watch Professor Michael Baker's full interview below.

"But it did feel very worthwhile because I think this was a time when people like me who are funded by the public can give back some of our knowledge and expertise that we’ve built up over many years.”

What still needs to be done?

Despite the successes of New Zealand’s pandemic response, Baker warns that the work is far from over.

While the Royal Commission of Inquiry has provided a comprehensive review of the Government’s response, he fears that crucial lessons may not be acted upon quickly enough.

“Now we have this phase two report, which is looking at some specific issues, which I think is also useful, but it's not going to be reported until next year.

“I'm very concerned that we don't just start acting now on the very good recommendations we've got.

“We know a lot about how to manage pandemics better. And we need to start applying that. I'm just worried that we're actually losing capacity at the moment.

Pacific people in Aotearoa New Zealand suffered disproportionately high death rates during the Covid-19 pandemic, with far more dying within 28 days of being reported as a case compared to other ethnic groups. This finding is covered in a new report that looked at the impact of the pandemic on Pacific communities and "missed opportunities" in New Zealand’s response. Photo/RNZ/AFP

“Our scientists are going to Australia in many cases that I know of because it's just the work is drying up.

“And I think we've got so much capacity we built up during the pandemic and so much expertise. We need to retain that and build on that.”

He warns that the risk of future pandemics is growing, with threats such as the “avian influenza evolving in ways that could impact human populations.

“I think the clock is ticking on some of these threats. So I'm just concerned that we're not applying those lessons now. And we've got a great roadmap with the Royal Commission report.”