Will’s Word: An Xmas boost for Labour as the tide begins to turn

If I were a Labour MP heading into Christmas, I'd be quietly chuffed with the latest poll results that's out. According to this new poll out by The Postin Freshwater Strategy, Labour has an eight-point lead over National.

That's up four since October. Perhaps that's momentum heading into the break. For a bit more context, Labour is on 38 per cent and National is slipping to 30. ACT and New Zealand First continue to tick along, but not enough to save the numbers.

The centre-left is suddenly back in the conversation. I'm not saying that it's a resounding victory based on these figures. Labour Party leader Chris Hipkins still leads on preferred Prime Minister stakes, 45 per cent. Christopher Luxon trails on 39.

Luxons gain ground, and I'll give them that, credit where credit is due, but Hipkins remains well ahead. That's the headline, isn't it, for Labour MPs as we head into the Christmas break. Labour is ahead of National.

Not a great position to be in. As National goes into holiday mode, this poll perhaps suggests that voters are shifting appetites. It says the government's reset isn't quite where it needs to be. The cost of living, health, and bread-and-butter politics continue to hurt.

So, based on this poll result, voters seem to be responding. Is it enough to govern tomorrow? No, not quite yet. But, again, after the battering of 2023, this is recovery territory for the Labour Party.

Not celebration, but confidence, quiet confidence, heading into the Christmas break. Perhaps the present, the red team, needs it under the tree. So if you're a Labour MP, you'd be chuffed, relieved, and quietly hopeful that that momentum continues into 2026.

That’s Will’s Word.

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