Navigating uncertainty: New Zealand’s foreign policy in the Trump era

The world watched in awe as President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance berated the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, in front of the global media.

This encounter reverberated worldwide and fundamentally changed eight decades of post-World War Two consensus.

As foreign relations unraveled between the United States and Europe, another superpower flexed its muscles in the South Pacific. Chinese People’s Liberation Army, or PLA, warships conducted live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea. Trans-Tasman flights between Australia and New Zealand diverted course, and Australia and New Zealand watched tensely as the PLA navy brushed home waters. In the days following, the ships continued to circumnavigate the Australian coastline.

In response to Australia and New Zealand’s concerns, China dismissed its naval presence as no threat and indicated that Australia should expect a greater Chinese presence.

These naval exercises came after the signing of a strategic partnership between China and the Cook Islands, adding to growing tensions of China’s influence in the South Pacific. While Cook Islands Prime Minister Mark Brown survived a no-confidence vote after the deal, New Zealand-Cook Islands relations remain strained.

New Zealand is in a tough spot as relationships with long-time political allies evolve in an increasingly tense environment.

Despite worldwide condemnation, Prime Minister Christopher Luxon refused to denounce President Trump’s treatment of President Zelensky in the Oval Office.

Global media has since made a spectacle of Winston Peters's firing of Phil Goff, the now former High Commissioner to the UK, after he questioned President Trump’s knowledge of history at an event discussing the war in Ukraine.

Goff’s firing sets the tone for New Zealand’s stance on America in this new Trump age: stand in line, sayn’t a word, and don’t compromise our allyship with the United States.

As Donald Trump advances a new world order by leveraging funding and military support with the stroke of his executive pen, new uncertainties for global stability have arisen, and questions have arisen about how countries should respond.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his American counterpart Donald Trump in the White House. Photo/Saul Loeb

While Ukraine may be a world away from the South Pacific, Trump’s foreign policy in Europe could explain how America would respond to Chinese encroachment in the Indo-Pacific region.

Will we be left to defend ourselves?

Most concerning is that Trump appeared unaware of AUKUS when questioned in the Oval Office during a visit from UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer.

“What does that mean?” he asked the journalist before brushing off the question by acknowledging the “great relationship” the US has maintained with the Australians.

Officials have called for assurances that New Zealand will not join AUKUS out of concern for how this will impact Aotearoa’s relationship with Pacific nations as a steward of the nuclear-free Rarotonga Treaty.

Joining the non-nuclear Pillar Two of AUKUS may provide increased security assurances for New Zealand in the wake of a growing Chinese presence. However, Trump’s end of the bargain is questionable in this new era of foreign policy.

Listen to International Relations Expert Anne-Marie Brady on PacificMornings to discuss the risks and why China might conduct military drills in the Pacific region.

Backed by his episonic periods of hyper-aggression in front of the world’s press, how can we trust that Trump will back the Pacific?

On top of that, Trump’s warmth toward Russian President Vladimir Putin signals a concerning shift in American ties to Russia and autocrats alike.

There is tense optimism across Indo-Pacific nations that opening dialogue between the US and its autocratic adversaries could signal a de-escalation of tensions. Let us heed the words of former High Commissioner Phil Goff in London: “Do you think he understands history?”

History has taught us that embracing autocrats is futile.

What is certain is that Trump will continue to deploy audacious political strongarming of allies through trade wars, aid cuts, and inflammatory rhetoric in this era of US foreign policy.

Trump has set the stage for what could be a dangerous power-play in the Pacific under his second term, as global powers become more advantageous with their reach of power on the world stage.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon and Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Foreign Affairs and Trade Vaovasamanaia Winston Peters. Photo/ RNZ/Samuel Rillstone

If the US opens its arms to Russia and enables Ukraine to sink into Russian control, China could have its assurances to impart an uninterrupted agenda on the Pacific. If this is the case, the military exercises in the Tasman could be an insight into what to expect under Chinese prominence in the Pacific.

So, where does New Zealand go? For starters, we need to develop our independent foreign policy position. Though this is unlikely to happen under the current leadership, New Zealand must be more intent in outlining its key concerns.

New Zealand must acknowledge that it can’t be everyone's friend.

The Pacific must not be a battleground for superpower rivalries. Whether the pressure comes from an ally or an adversary, New Zealand must safeguard its Pacific family and uphold regional stability.

In that vein, coddling to hawkish political figures can only get us so far if we want to preserve our values.

Andre Fa’aoso is a youth journalist and political commentator from Tāmaki Makaurau studying Political Science and Economics at Yale University.