Expert explainer: What's on the agenda for the Pacific Islands Forum?

Pacific leaders will be discussing a plethora of issues at the 52nd Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Rarotonga next week, but what will the outcomes be?

PMN spoke with a number of geopolitical experts to hear their expectations and how larger nations may overshadow the outcomes Pacific nations are aiming to achieve.

The influence of superpowers

Senior lecturer at Victoria University Dr Iati Iati says if the PIF is committed to becoming the conduit through which the Pacific voice is heard by international partners, then it should also address the changing geopolitical landscape.

“We see a lot more action from the Western side with the opening up of embassies in the region, especially from the US. While it may be good for the pursuit of the interests of New Zealand, Australia, the US, etc, it’s not necessarily good for the Pacific.”

Geopolitical issues have divided the Pacific community as the United States and the United Kingdom prepare to send either larger contingents to the forum than has been seen in the past.

Senior academic at Griffith Asia Institute Tess Newton Cain says the presence of these superpowers can divert discussions away from the region-wide issues the secretariat will want to address.

“The issue there is that they can suck some oxygen out of the environment. They often want bilateral meetings and they can be somewhat of a distraction. That’s something I think will be a challenge for Mr Puna and his team at the secretariat.”

Environmental concerns

Another issue is whether the forum will take a strong stance on conservation concerns.

Green Party MP Teanau Tuiono hopes Pacific leaders will act as a collective to push back against deep sea mining.

“Look, the push needs to be around regionalism and what’s best for the region. My view is that deep sea mining is not good for the region. We are in the middle of a climate crisis. We need to act cohesively as a region to recognise that and push back against extractive industries. But to find a way as a Pacific Blue Continent to use that to our advantage.”

Dr Iati says climate change is an obvious topic to be discussed but clean water supply, poverty, regional development and infrastructure issues also need addressing.

Regional Security

Dr Iati is expecting to see New Zealand and Australia look to invest in strengthening the forum and also their own Pacific relations.

But he thinks Pacific nations will focus on security measures that don’t necessarily align with NZ and Aus.

“I would hope what the traditional benefactors to the region as well as the new emerging actors in the region are doing is working out ways that they can find win-win situations for themselves and the Pacific Islands.”

NZ representation

With our government yet to be confirmed it begs the question: "Who will represent NZ?"

Dr Iati says ideally Prime Minister-elect Christopher Luxon should attend to boost NZ's relevance in the region.

“For his future relations with the region it would be important for him to attend and make those connections as soon as possible given the deficit that New Zealand currently has in the Pacific in terms of his influence.”

The senior academic says NZ First Leader Winston Peters would also be a top choice, given the way he's handled the Foreign Affairs portfolio twice before under Labour-led governments.

He says Peters’ wealth of experience and connections within the region makes him an obvious candidate to attend.

“This is only what I’ve heard anecdotally, but he did have a lot of mana in the Pacific … now that doesn’t mean it’s going to be smooth sailing. The geopolitical outlook has ramped up a lot more than when he was last in office so there will be a lot of work for him to do.”

PMN understands that if coalition talks aren’t resolved prior to the commencement of the PIFLM52, the current caretaker-Deputy Prime Minister Carmel Sepuloni will go accompanied by a member nominated by the opposition.