Election 2023 - On The Beat: Can Labour bounce back from its polling heartbreak

Kanye West’s melancholy album 808s & Heartbreak has been playing a lot in my car lately, due to the sporting losses I’ve experienced this weekend. And with the recent polls of the last week, Labour’s strategists are probably asking themselves the same question that West sings, "I look back on my life … Where did I go wrong?”

The Roy Morgan poll on Monday had the left-leaning bloc of Labour, Greens and Te Pāti Māori on 40.5 per cent, 9 points behind a potential National/ACT coalition. While the Taxpayers' Union Curia poll had the difference as 42.1 per cent to National/ACT on 49.3.

But as Auckland University's Associate Professor in Statistics Andrew Sporle told Levi Matautia-Morgan on 531pi’s Pacific Mornings, polls can’t always be taken at face value as there’s the margin or error, the number of landlines vs cellphones used and the sample size to take into account. He also highlighted that the number of undecided voters needs to be considered and that will be the great unknown factor keeping Chris Hipkins' and Christopher Luxon's teams up at night.

Aupito William Sio credits Labour’s victory in 2005 to a surge from Pacific voters, who’s voting power wasn’t reflected in polls. So can Labour excite Pacific voters in the same way again? 

The other variable from 2005 was National's relationship with the Exclusive Brethren, where it was revealed party leader Don Brash was having covert meetings with members from this conservative and wealthy Christian denomination. This story, coupled with Brash’s campaign tactics aimed at creating divisions along race lines is seen as another reason National lost after leading in the polls earlier in the year. 

While Luxon has performed fairly well, there’s been some recent hiccups with their tax policy and a strange situation where John Key has actually come out in opposition to it, mirroring some of Labour’s criticisms. For such a popular figure from National to make such blunt statements in contradiction is quite odd, and there may be some internal disquiet about increasing taxes, which is against the ideological principles of many in the party.

So how this plays out for National could be the crack in the armour Labour is looking for to turn their fortunes around.

Policy soundtrack

For this week’s hip hop theme - I thought I’d align a rap song to some of the recent policies announced by the main parties.

The Sounds of da Police - KRS-One

Labour’s announcement of free dental for under 30s lends itself easily to Nelly’s Grillz - but given I've already referenced this song in an earlier column - I thought KRS-One’s The Sound of the Police was an appropriate track for party’s plan to increase police numbers by a further 300 frontline cops.

Game Don't Wait - Warren G

National’s recently released pledge card lists a series of commitments it will implement once in Government. One that jumps out is its promise to cut waiting times at hospitals. This will be welcomed by anyone who’s found themselves in an hospital emergency department recently, and if you’re Snoop Dogg, Nate Dogg and Warren G, it will also be a popular policy as they say, “shit don't stop because the game don't wait”.

Country Folks - Bubba Sparxxx

One of ACT's policies is to cut regulations for farmers - and I think the self-proclaimed hilly billy Bubba Sparxxx would be a big fan of this - particularly given his track Country Folks, which extolls the benefits of rural living.

Another ACT policy is to supercharge roading maintenance, and Bubba Sparxxx has a line about this in Deliverance where he derides the long, dusty roads in his community - something which would potentially be fixed under an ACT-led government. 

Luxury Tax- Rick Ross

Te Pāti Māori have put out their own tax policy which is quite different to National’s. In their plan they intend to remove GST from all kai, remove income tax for those on low incomes, while increasing tax for those earning over $200,000.

When it comes to paying taxes, not all rappers are on the same page. Kanye West complains the IRS want too much, while Rick Ross sees paying taxes as the consequence of his success.

POWER - Kanye West

The Greens plan to roll out a Clean Power Payment to 60,000 homes a year making it easier for people to install solar panels on their roofs.

If this policy came to fruition, households might find themselves ironically singing these lines from West’s 2010 track Power: "No one man should have all that power, The clock's ticking, I just count the hours, Stop tripping, I'm tripping off the power.”

And with the Greens also rising in the polls, they could be singing, “I got the power to make ya life so exciting” as their growing electoral influence could be used to squeeze some climate-focused policies out of National, if ACT proves unhelpful.

*Disclaimer: When not working as a journalist, Justin Latif has previously volunteered for a range of political parties as well as supporting Fa'anana Efeso Collins during his run for mayor.