Mixed fortunes for Pacific candidates as MMP shapes uncertain NZ election outcome

Pacific candidates have emerged from Saturday's general election with contrasting results, highlighting how New Zealand's mixed-member proportional (MMP) voting system shapes who enters Parliament.

Pacific Media Network (PMN) has identified 28 candidates with Pacific heritage across nine political parties. Eight are set to enter Parliament, while 20 miss out under the preliminary results from the election on Saturday.

Several attracted thousands of electorate votes but failed to secure seats. Others qualify through party lists despite receiving fewer candidate votes.

Their results come as New Zealand faces an uncertain political future, with National, ACT and NZ First holding a narrow parliamentary majority.

The three parties have a combined 67 seats, just one above the 66 needed to govern in a 131-seat Parliament.

Nearly 400,000 special votes remain outstanding. The balance of power could change when official results are released on 27 November.

The close result has also renewed debate over MMP, particularly the rules that have produced an 11-seat overhang.

Labour received 710,330 party votes, slightly more than National's 706,680. Yet National secures 42 seats compared with Labour's 36.

The results demonstrate how electorate victories, party votes and list rankings can produce different outcomes for Pacific candidates.

Of the 28 Pacific candidates identified by PMN, 27 contested electorates and one stood only on a party list.

Labour

Five Labour Pacific MPs retain their electorate seats, with Barbara Edmonds, Tangi Utikere, Lemauga Lydia Sosene, Carmel Sepuloni and Jenny Salesa all returning to Parliament.

Four other candidates missed out including former Labour list MP Dan Rosewarne, who has Sāmoan ancestry through his grandmother, after contesting the Waimakariri seat. Rosewarne first entered Parliament in 2022 and returned in March this year following Peeni Henare's resignation.

Former MP Anahila Kanongata'a also missed out in Papakura, alongside Dr Anae Neru Leavasa in Botany and Sange Malama in Rangitata.

Henrietta Hunkin-Tagaloa, who stood on Labour's party list only, also falls outside the party's parliamentary allocation based on the preliminary results.

National

National's four Pacific candidates failed to secure seats in Parliament, including former National MP Agnes Loheni who previously served as a list MP from 2019 to 2020.

Angee Nicholas finished second to Labour's Phil Twyford in Henderson, contrasting sharply with their contest in 2023, when Nicholas came within just 131 votes of unseating Twyford in the former Te Atatū electorate.

Dr Zabeen Lateef in Remutaka and Rosemary Bourke in Māngere were also unsucessful.

The result leaves National without a Pacific MP, despite winning more electorate seats than any other party.

Greens

The Green Party is set to double its Pacific representation from one to two MPs, with returning Cook Islands Māori MP Teanau Tuiono joined by newcomer Tania Waikato, who has Māori, Sāmoan and Hawaiian heritage.

Both secured their places through the party list after unsuccessful electorate campaigns.

The Greens' other three Pacific candidates missed out. Zephyr Brown contested Kaipara ki Mahurangi, Michel Mulipola stood in Māngere, and Te Whatanui Leka Taumalolo Skipwith ran in Ōtāhuhu.

NZ First

Former National cabinet minister Alfred Ngaro is set to return to Parliament under New Zealand First, securing a seat through his fifth-place party-list ranking.

Ngaro, a National MP from 2011 to 2020, unsuccessfully contested Glendene against Labour's Carmel Sepuloni.

NZ First's other three Pacific candidates missed out. Esther Tofilau-Tevaga stood in Manurewa, while Elliot Ikilei and Vicky Hau were unsuccessful in Takanini and Māngere respectively.

Other Parties

None of the five Pacific candidates representing smaller parties secured a parliamentary seat.

Despite the Opportunity party securing seven seats, Romeo Tevaga missed out being listed at 12.

ACT's Henrietta Devoe, Animal Justice's Avalua Tavui, Vision NZ's Karl Mokaraka and Alliance's Victoria Ale were also unsuccessful.

Overall, eight of PMN's 28 identified Pacific candidates are set to enter Parliament, five through electorates and three through party lists.

Their results highlight how MMP shapes parliamentary representation. The final outcome remains subject to special votes being counted, with official results due on 27 November.