Election 2023 explainer: National to lead next Govt, but what's next?

National won a commanding 38.9 per cent of the party vote. But what's next for Christopher Luxon to form his government and who will be our newest Pacific MPs?

Where do things stand now?

Following the votes counted on election night, National won 38.9 per cent of the party vote, while Labour got 26.8 per cent, Greens 10.78 per cent, ACT 9 per cent, NZ First 6.4 per cent and Te Pāti Māori 2.6 per cent (see table below for the seat breakdown).

The best performing minor parties who didn't make it into Parliament were: The Opportunities Party (TOP) winning 2.07 per cent, New Zealand Loyal won 1.16 per cent and NewZeal won .56 per cent of party votes.

The preliminary results are based on the 2,244,380 ordinary votes counted on election day.

When will it be official?

On these current numbers, National and ACT could form a government without any other parties. However, there are still an estimated 567,000 special votes to count, with the Electoral Commission aiming to release an official count by 2pm, Friday, 3 November. This means serious coalition talks may not begin until after this date.

What are special votes?

These are votes from overseas or those who enrolled on the day or voted in an electorate different from where they’re enrolled. Traditionally these votes tend to favour parties like the Greens and Labour. And as Carmel Sepuloni said on PMN's Post Election Special, there were long lines at polling stations across West Auckland and South Auckland, indicating that many people may have been casting special votes.

Watch our Post Election Special here:

How will special votes change the final result?

One of the tightest races in the election was Te Atatū, which is currently held by National's Rarotonga-born candidate Angee Nicholas by just 30 votes. And in Nelson, National is winning that seat by just 54 votes.

But if the special votes were to swing in Labour or the Green's favour, as has happened in the past, we may see National lose its one seat advantage and at this point Luxon would need to call Winston Peters to help form a wider coalition, alongside ACT.

How will the Port Waikato by-election change things?

Last week the ACT Party’s Port Waikato candidate Neil Christensen died, so there will be a by-election for this electorate on 25 November. This seat is traditionally won by National Party candidates, which would mean its candidate Andrew Bayly would become an electorate MP, and another list MP from National would enter Parliament.

What about the overhang?

There is also talk about how an overhang could be created. This is where Parliament has to be increased from 120 seats to accommodate extra MPs.

Normally parties should only receive the number of seats that match the percentage of party votes they receive. But if a party wins more electorate seats than is proportionate to its party vote, which may happen in this election with Te Pāti Māori, then Parliament needs to be expanded to 121 or 122 seats.

If this was to happen, National would need 63 seats to form a stable coalition, and again this is where NZ First will prove crucial.

Finally, who will be the Pacific MPs?

According to preliminary results, Green list candidate Fa'anana Efeso Collins is set be the newest Pacific addition to Parliament for the next term.

As stated earlier, National's Angee Nicholas holds a slender 30 vote lead over Phil Tywford, so special votes are crucial before she can be confirmed as an MP.

National Party list candidate Agnes Loheni is just outside the line to enter Parliament, due to her party winning 45 electorates, which means it will only bring in five list MPs on current results. However she could find herself in Parliament if there are any retirements by older MPs along with Andrew Bayly securing Port Waikato.

But it's less good news for Labour list MPs Anahila Kanongata'a-Suisuiki and Dan Rosewarne who will both not be returning in this term.

While Takanini electorate MP Anae Neru Leavasa and Ōtaki incumbent Terisa Ngobi have also lost their seats to their National Party rivals.

However the Green's Teanau Tuiono and Labour's Carmel Sepuloni, Barbara Edmonds, Jenny Salesa and Tangi Ukitere look to have all retained their places, while Lemauga Lydia Sosene will be Māngere's new electorate MP, having previously served in Parliament as a Labour list MP.

When can we expect to know the final result?

That’s hard to say given all the permutations of special votes, overhang seats and coalition negotiations. So realistically we may not know the final make-up of our next government till a few days after 3 November - which means Chris Hipkins remains the caretaker prime minister for the time being.