Analysis: US elections - potential political violence and presidential predictions

As Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and Republican contender Donald Trump duke it out for the presidency today, will violence ensue following either side's victory?

The first election polls in the United States will close at 6pm US Eastern Time (1pm NZST) today with the last closing at 1pm EST (7pm NZST), with anxieties across the country expected to only heighten as a result becomes clearer.

Speaking to William Terite on Pacific Mornings, political analyst and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, Henry Olsen, was asked if political violence would still be on the table following the election results.

"I wish I could say no," Olsen responded.

"[But] I have to say yes because what we've been told, and so many people believe it, is that the fate of the country is at stake.

"You literally have people who believe there will never be an election again if Donald Trump wins.

"You have people who believe that if Kamala Harris wins she will crush our liberties through executive action."

Olsen said desperate people on the fringes typically resort to acting out and that it likely will not be coordinated or organised.

"It would be angry people who go out and riot or shoot up a store or something like that"

Watch Harry Olsen's full interview via 531pi's FB below:

'Likelier than not Trump will win'
In terms of which candidate is likely to secure victory, former Chief of Staff for Marco Rubio's Presidential Campaign, Matt Terrill, said several indicators highlight Trump as the favourite.

Terrill said polling and early voting show this, alongside economic inflation and President Joe Biden's high disapproval rating where most Americans feel the country is heading in the wrong direction.

"Those are all indicators that would lead you to believe that President Trump has a lot of momentum going into tonight," he said.

"I think many people in his campaign, as well as Republican voters, feel good, they feel confident."

Another sign Terrill pointed out was Republican voters had turned out early, which traditionally only Democrat voters do.

However, Terrill said polling also showed it will likely be a close race between the two, where only time will tell if the polls predictions were correct.

Watch Mark Terill's full interview via 531pi's FB below:

As for Olsen's forecast, he said although he is not entirely confident, looking at the data it is "likelier than not [Trump] will win".

He said Harris' coalition relied on urban areas which would not translate to success in crucial states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

“She’s going to win big margins in places like California or Washington state, but her coalition is less powerful in the states that have big electoral college weight," Olsen said.

"I think Trump will narrowly carry enough of those states that he will have a majority in the electoral college even if he does not win as I expect the popular vote.

“It just suggests that he’s going to win the electoral college, and that’s the way we elect our president."