2025 predictions: Change and transition in NZ and beyond

OPINION: 2025 will likely be the Coalition Government’s last full year in power.

With Parliament just two weeks away from its first sitting day, here are my predictions for this year.

We expect to see Deputy Prime Minister Vaovasamanaia Winston Peters hand over the leadership to ACT leader David Seymour at the end of May.

Local elections are also set to begin in October, allowing the public to vote on Māori wards.

Christopher Luxon listens to speeches at the pōwhiri for the government at Waitangi in February 2024. Photo: RNZ / Angus Dreaver

It’s fair to say that the Government’s relations with Māori have been rocky, and tensions were intensified after Prime Minister Christopher Luxon confirmed that he won’t participate in this year’s Waitangi Day events on the Treaty Grounds.

On the international front, Donald Trump will begin his second non-consecutive term as President of the United States.

All eyes will be on this presidential transition, which is expected to reverse many policies implemented during Biden’s administration, particularly those related to immigration, climate change, and social policies.

We can also expect to see the rise of Tulsi Gabbard, who is likely to become the most powerful figure in the Pacific as Trump's nominee for Director of National Intelligence.

Tulsi Gabbard is an American Sāmoan-born US politician and military officer serving as a lieutenant colonel in the US Army Reserve since 2021. Photo/US Congress

In the Pacific region, Vanuatu’s election results are expected soon. Tonga will hold its elections in November, and the annual Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting will take place in the Solomon Islands.

With this context, here are my political predictions for 2025:

1- Another major Cabinet reshuffle

This wouldn’t be the first for the Government, especially after National MP Melissa Lee lost her Minister for Media and Communications role.

Although some might see this as a sign of instability, cabinet reshuffles are common in any government.

While I can’t pinpoint who may be involved, we will have to wait to see who joins the cabinet and who departs from this influential group.

Melissa Lee is National's List MP based in Mt Albert. Photo/National Party

2 - Growing influence of Te Pāti Māori

This prediction may come as no surprise after the country experienced its biggest protest, with tens of thousands of people marching onto Parliament’s forecourt against ACT’s Treaty Principles Bill.

There was also a rise in the polls for Te Pāti Māori, surpassing New Zealand First and trailing just one per cent behind ACT in the latest One News Verian poll.

But this growth could be hindered by findings from an investigation into allegations that the Māori Party misused data from census forms and Covid-19 vaccination campaigns, which will be released later this month.

Depending on these findings, a reshuffle within Te Pāti Māori may occur, potentially resulting in a by-election, as all members are Electorate MPs.

Te Pāti Māori co-leaders Debbie Ngarewa-Packer and Rawiri Waititi. Photo/TPM Website

3 - Vaovasamanaia Winston Peters to spend more time in the Pacific

Since entering office, Peters aimed to visit all 18 Pacific Islands Forum member countries before last August's annual meeting.

He made it to all but one - Kiribati.

Overall, as Foreign Minister, he made 19 overseas trips in 2024, visiting 42 different countries, almost half of which were to the Pacific.

Last August, he led the first-ever New Zealand delegations to the Federated States of Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, and Palau.

After handing over the baton to Seymour, I expect Peters to spend more time in the Pacific, given the increasing geopolitical interests in the region and how Trump’s transition may affect existing policies and relationships.

Winston Peters with Palau's President Surangel Samuel Whipps Jr. Photo/PMN News/Ala Vailala

4 - Change in Labour leadership

There’s a popular saying among the youth: “never pelu”, which is Tongan for not folding or giving up.

Labour Leader Chris Hipkins embodies this spirit.

Despite losing the 2023 election, he has managed to keep his party out of trouble while expressing a desire to run again in the 2026 election - something I predict might change.

We’ve seen the rise of Labour’s MP for Mana, Barbara Edmonds, who has become the party's first female finance spokesperson.

With her background as a tax lawyer and appointment to Cabinet following Jacinda Ardern’s resignation, Edmonds delivered a refreshing speech at Labour’s conference in Christchurch last year.

She could very well lead the party soon.

Watch some of Barbara Edmonds' speeches here.

5 - Hu’akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni makes a comeback as Tonga’s PM

After his sudden resignation ahead of the no-confidence vote last year, former Prime Minister of Tonga Hu’akavameiliku Siaosi Soveleni has not ruled out the possibility of contesting the role in the upcoming elections, should he be elected as the People’s Representative for Tongatapu 10.

With Tonga’s elections set for November, there is little confidence in Prime Minister Dr ‘Aisake Eke’s ability to implement significant change if re-elected.

For now, we await his announcement regarding Tonga’s Cabinet.

Former Tongan PM Hu'akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni, left, and his successor Dr 'Aisake Eke. Photo/Tonga Parliament Facebook