The big issues facing forum leaders in Tonga

There is increasing pressure on regional institutions such as the Pacific Islands Forum to deliver for the communities they're representing, a foreign policy expert says.

Mihai Sora's comments come ahead of the Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting in Tonga in just over a week.

Sora, director of the Pacific programme at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, says with the region facing significant challenges including record-high cost of living, healthcare, and climate change, the expectation is there for Forum leaders to address these issues in Nuku'alofa.

"There is pressure on regional institutions, not just the Pacific Islands Forum, to be seen to be delivering for the communities that they are representing. That will be front of mind for Pacific leaders at the meeting.

From left, Pacific leaders Jeremiah Manele of the Solomon Islands, Cook Islands' Mark Brown and Fiji's Sitiveni Rabuka will lead a Forum delegation to New Caledonia. Photo/supplied

"They'll be looking to make progress in areas where they can such as in the climate change space, the team coming back from the New Caledonia mission.

"There's also regional security architecture. For some countries, it's very important to progress things like the Pacific policing initiatives."

At the recent Forum Foreign Ministers' Meeting in Fiji, the unrest in New Caledonia, membership applications by two US territories, dwindling banking services, and a homegrown climate finance fund were among the topics discussed with senior policymakers from the region.

Speaking to the media post-meeting, Forum Chair and Prime Minister of Cook Islands Mark Brown announced that French President Emmanuel Macron had given the go-ahead for a PIF mission to visit New Caledonia before the leaders' meeting.

Brown and his counterparts, Fiji's Sitiveni Rabuka and the Solomon Islands' Jeremiah Manele are expected to head to the French territory next week before reporting back to the leaders in Tonga.

Rabuka is also scheduled for a 10-day visit to China so it's going to be a tight turnaround for the Fijian leader.

The 52nd PIF leaders meeting in Rarotonga in 2023. Photo/PIF

Sora said he expected some progress in Tonga on the "really critically sensitive stuff" while being realistic about what could be achieved was "probably the most sensible way to go".

"It's important to be realistic about how much can be accomplished by a meeting that brings together such a diverse range of interests. I think it's unfair to expect it to be able to meet all the interests of the time.

'I'm optimistic we'll see some progress on issues like climate change, global connectivity, the regional responding to the security needs of the Pacific to do with climate change, with natural disasters, with transnational crime in local communities as well. "

He said many of the issues were already discussed at the ministerial levels, pointing to the recent Forum Economic Ministers and Foreign Ministers meetings.

The 'homegrown' climate finance that's becoming operational has an initial US$500 million (NZ$832m) in funds by 2026, but only about US$328m (NZ$546m) has yet to be pledged.

Guterres has agreed to host what he calls a pledging conference in New York soon and the UN chief hopes to see France, the United Kingdom, and those wealthy Middle Eastern countries on board as a demonstration of their commitment to addressing the Pacific's number one priority, climate crisis.

Sora said while he could see some outcomes in Tonga, in terms of West Papua being one of the issues publicly deliberated as civil society would want, "I think that's unlikely because of the division in official positions and the lack of access.

Mihai Sora of the Lowy Institute says he's optimistic the forum leaders will make some progress in Tonga. Photo/supplied

Rabuka said he would apologise to the Melanesian leaders in Tonga because he had failed to secure an agreement to visit West Papua.

Rabuka and Papua New Guinea Prime Minister James Marape have been trying to organise a visit to the troubled region for more than nine months after the Melanesian Spearhead Group appointed them "special envoys" on West Papua during the PIF leaders' meeting in Rarotonga last year.

"The UN secretary-general will attend this Pacific forum and it may be something that he raises, using his capacity as the UNSG as an advocate for human rights," Sora said.

Brown is expected to hand over the Forum Chair to Tongan Prime Minister Hu'akavameiliku Siaosi Sovaleni in Nuku'alofa.

Sovaleni said the Kingdom was ready to welcome visitors.

Founded in 1971, the Pacific Islands Forum includes Aotearoa New Zealand, Australia, Federated States of Micronesia, French Polynesia Tahiti, Kiribati, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Republic of Marshall Islands, Sāmoa, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.

The 53rd Forum Leaders Meeting will be held from 26-30 August. The theme is Transformative, Resilient, Pasifiki: Build Better Now.

Pacific Islands Forum members at the leaders meeting in Rarotonga in 2023. Photo/PIF