Election 2023 - On The Beat: Party leaders start to make their moves in the MMP 'game of chess'

The Fugees' line in their chart-topping track Ready or Not​, “I play my enemies, like a game of chess” is an appropriate rap for this week's column - given the MMP mind games have begun to pick up.

On Sunday, Chris Hipkins announced Labour won’t form a coalition​ with NZ First and Winston Peters. The move is a familiar machination with MMP politics, as parties try to give voters an idea of how to vote strategically, by indicating who they will form a government with.

John Key was particularly adept at this, as he would often arrange “cup of tea” deals​ with parties like ACT and United Future to ensure he had pliable partners for the post-election negotiations.

But one could argue that Labour’s decision to rule out a coalition with NZ First also plays into Winston Peters’ hands.

​The public now know a vote for Winnie - is also a vote to keep National and ACT in check - which will be an attractive proposition to any centre-right regional or rural voter who feels uneasy about the urban/corporate persona Christopher Luxon and David Seymour give off.

But if Luxon was to rule NZ First out as well, it would potentially force Peters to soften his hardline rhetoric as he could find himself out in the cold with those wanting a change in government.

This move has also enabled Hipkins a chance to set his narrative for this campaign, by characterising Labour/ Greens and Te Pati Māori as a stable option compared to what he’s described as a “coalition of chaos” made up of National/ACT and NZ First.

This line in the Fugees' song How Many Mics​, "claiming that you got a new style, [but] your attempts are futile, ooh child
your puerile​" reminds me a little of Freedoms NZ given their recent heckling incidents​. But as they will always struggle to get mainstream media attention, the tactics of the last few days​​ are probably not a bad political strategy. Harassing both Hipkins and Luxon has allowed the Brian Tamaki-led party to grab some headlines, giving voters a greater awareness of their existence.​​

​For the Greens, they have stuck to their strategy of pumping out multiple policies to try and gain their own media coverage. And while their policies have merit - it seems difficult to see how they will come to fruition due to Labour’s push towards fiscal conservatism.

This brings me to my last observation. Between 2008 and 2011 John Key consistently ruled out working with Peters, and National also focused their campaigns around the idea of a stable government vs a shambolic coalition. Some commentators are also arguing that Labour’s recent moves​ are very much in line with how a centre-right government like John Key's operated, given policies like mandatory financial literacy, cutting the civil service and cracking down on ram raiders would be just the kinds of policies a Key government may have put out​ in an election year.

I won’t go as far as saying Hipkins is using the Key-English-Joyce playbook, but it certainly seems Hipkins is copying aspects of it, which reminds me of another Fugees rap line, “you can't create, you just wait to take my tapes”.​

But as we get ever closer to election day, given NZ First’s slowly growing poll numbers, Peters’ could well be uttering Lauryn Hill’s iconic hook: "Ready or not, here I come".

*Disclaimer: When not working as a journalist, Justin Latif has previously volunteered for a range of political parties as well as supporting Fa'anana Efeso Collins during his run for mayor.