‘Nobody's interested in a snap election’

A “political stalemate” is how commentator Tauiliili Christian Malietoa-Brown has described the situation in Sāmoa.

His comments follow the recent political saga involving Prime Minister Fiamē Naomi Mata’afa, who has warned that she will advise the Head of State to dissolve Parliament if a vote of no confidence is introduced against her.

With only 15 out of 51 MPs supporting her, Fiamē faces significant challenges in navigating legislative hurdles.

“It's not like New Zealand, where if we change the leader of the party, that person automatically becomes the prime minister,” Brown explained.

“Constitutionally, you need a two-thirds majority in parliament to remove a prime minister if they don't want to stand down of their own accord.”

He highlights the ongoing rift within the political landscape, saying there were differing opinions on the implications of leadership changes.

“So that's where the whole rift has been coming because you have one side that says, ‘Well wait a minute, if you remove this leader of the party, then you should automatically step down from prime ministership’.

“Are we going to go to a snap election? Are we going to have a minority-led government? There were all kinds of questions on the table.”

Tauiliili Christian Malietoa-Brown is the former Chair of the National Party's Pacific Blues. Photo/Christian Malietoa-Brown Facebook

Roots of the crisis

The political crisis stems from divisions within the FAST Party.

Earlier this month, Agriculture and Fisheries Minister La’auli Leuatea Schmidt was dismissed following criminal charges filed against him.

Fiamē later removed three other Cabinet Ministers, emphasising the need for accountability and effective leadership in her government.

This prompted 20 members of the FAST Party to expel Fiamē from her position as leader and Prime Minister.

Fiamē also terminated the appointment of 13 ministers and issued her warning during the first session of Sāmoa’s parliament earlier this week.

Samoa's PM Fiamē Naomi Mata'afa and Head of State Tuimalealiʻifano Vaʻaletoʻa Sualauvi II. Photo/Sāmoa Government Facebook

The challenge of governing

With over a year until Sāmoa’s next election, Brown, who is currently in Sāmoa, expressed his views regarding the possibility of a snap election.

“Nobody's interested in a snap election because nobody's ready for one yet.

“There are some that will say the opposition should make use of this and go for a snap election and they'll win by a landslide. That's not necessarily true.”

He warned against underestimating La’auli, saying, “Even though he might seem like he's on the down and out, he is a comeback king.

“La’auli has been doing a series of fundraising in America, Australia and New Zealand, and he controls the FAST Party now.

“He's got the cash to contest an election pretty strongly, and I think that's why nobody's interested in a snap election.”

La’auli Leuatea Schmidt is the son of former Samoan government minister and founding member of the Human Rights Protection Party (HRPP) Polataivao Fosi Schmidt. Photo/Laaulialemalietoa Polataivao Schmidt Facebook

Where to next?

Regarding the best-case scenario, Brown explained how the current situation might work in Fiamē’s favour.

“Fiamē is running a minority government now. She's got a whole clean slate to do some stuff that perhaps she couldn't have before.

“And so there might be some stuff, especially pertaining to the economy, pertaining to infrastructure that she can pass with the opposition, because that's what the opposition is known for, is trying to be the economic party.”

He cautioned that if Fiamē can take proactive steps to address issues such as the cost of living and inflation, even marginal improvements might be noticeable to the public.

Watch Christian Malietoa-Brown's full interview on Pacific Mornings below.

“The best case scenario is if the cost of living can start to be brought down and inflation can really be tackled to a point where people can start to notice, even if it's by five to ten dollars, people really take notice of those things.

“Then she can come out on top, and then she can form a coalition however she wants in the next one. But really, it's a three-way stalemate.”